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Building a predictive churn model

I was trying to build a predictive churn model based on statistical analytical techniques. However, I have not been able to hit upon the right tool (logistic regression, cluster analysis, or PCA) or the right methodology. It would be very nice if you could provide some insights as to the modeling aspects.
I've likened predictive churn modeling to the alchemy practiced during medieval times when trying to find a formula which would create gold. Most predictive models are built on a combination of multivariate techniques which include regression and branching (CHAID) methodologies. For reference, I've attached one of my articles on this subject, which appeared last year on SearchCRM.

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